Dem has razor-thin lead over GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in battleground NY House district: poll
It’s a dead heat!Democrat Cait Conley has a razor-thin 2-point lead over Republican Rep.Mike Lawler in the race for a New York swing district that could be the key to which party controls Congress in 2027, a new poll found.The Democratic challenger’s lead the PIX 11/Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday Is within the poll’s margin of error of 4.9 percentage points – showing the election is a nail biter going into its final four weeks.The poll, the first released for the suburban 17th congressional district in New York’s Hudson Valley, showed 48% of likely voters back Conley, 46% support Lawler with 7% undecided.The poll of 400 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, meaning the race could go either way.
The survey was conducted from Sept.27-29.An enthusiasm gap exists among voters in the district, with those backing Conley looking more jazzed to cast ballots in the Midterm Elections this year, Emerson Polling said.Respondents who said they are “very excited” to vote in the Nov.
3 election favor Conley by 7 points — 52% to 45%.Voters “somewhat excited” to participate break for Lawler by 12 points, 52% to 40%, according to the poll.In a potentially troubling sign for Lawler, the GOP incumbent is drawing less crossover support from Democrats than he did in a poll taken in October 2024, when he faced off against ex-Rep Mondaire Jones.“In the 2024 Emerson NY-17 poll, 20% of Democrats supported Rep.Lawler, while 4% of Republicans supported the Democrat, Mondaire Jones,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.“In 2026, Democratic crossover support for Lawler fell eight points to 12%, while Republican support for the Democrat rose six points, to 10%.”The economy — jobs, inflation, taxes — was cited as the top issue facing the state by 31% of voters, followed by 23% of respondents who cited “threats to democracy,” 13% immigration and 12% housing affordability...