Commentary: What's going to happen in the midterm election? Find out here. (Maybe)

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Set us as preferred There are few people, if any, who’ve tracked U.S.elections for longer or in greater depth than Charlie Cook.

Ever since 1984, when he started his eponymous political newsletter, Cook and his stellar crew of nonpartisan analysts have plumbed many thousands of races — for president, Congress, governor — following the money, sussing out the candidates, watching their ads and assaying the campaign landscape at a granular level.Cook calls this midterm election the strangest he’s ever seen.What appeared to be a fairly normal election for a president halfway through his term — a probable setback, as unhappy voters register their discontent — has the potential, Cook said, to turn into a disaster for Republicans.Big losses aren’t rare for the party in the White House.

Democrats picked up 41 House seats in President Trump’s last midterm election, in 2018.What’s unusual, Cook suggested, is the prospect of big Democratic gains when Republicans started out this election season with so many advantages.(And that was before the GOP set off on a gerrymandering jag at Trump’s behest.)The four-seat gain Democrats need to win control once seemed all but out of reach.

Odds are looking up, though the party still faces a tough path, with toss-up races in a half dozen (mostly red) states.Roughly two-thirds of the Senate seats up in November are in states Trump carried in 2024.Five of the seven toss-up races are in states Trump won, several by double digits.On the House side, Republicans maintain control by an exceedingly narrow margin, meaning there aren’t a lot of low-hanging districts for Democrats to aim for.

As Cook rightly noted, “A party cannot lose a seat they don’t have.”But Trump’s deteriorating approval rating, an unpopular war, persistent inflation and the president’s egotistical indul...