Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, won the first round of the Brazilian presidential election tonight, turning in a surprisingly strong showing, and continuing a long run of wins for Latin American Trump-backed right-wing candidates.Although the race had tightened considerably in the weeks leading up to the election, the vast majority of the polls showed incumbent President Ignacio Lula da Silva with a single digit lead.Bolsonaro will now face off against President Lula da Silva in an October 25 second round election.With 99% of the votes in, Bolsonaro led Lula 47.2% to 44.9%, in a race Lula had widely been expected to win.LATIN AMERICA’S CONSERVATIVE SHIFT FACES ITS BIGGEST TEST YET IN BRAZIL ELECTIONBrazil's right-wing senator and presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) gestures next to federal deputy and candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro, Douglas Ruas (L) during a campaign rally on the eve of the general election, in Campo Grande neighborhood, in the western zone of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 3, 2026.
Brazilians go to the polls on Oct.r 4, 2026 (Douglas SHINEIDR / AFP via Getty Images)Tonight, the question on everyone's mind: how could the pollsters get the results so wrong?The epic polling failure will serve to give further ammunition to the Brazilian right and the Bolsonaro camp, which have long alleged that the nation's leading pollsters turn in work biased in favor of Lula and his Workers Party.The polling situation was similarly unfavorable to Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 and 2018 elections, but relatively minor in comparison with the disparity in tonight's electoral results.Bolsonaro put in an incredibly strong showing in his electoral strongholds in the south of Brazil, winning the country's three largest states by large margins: Flavio Bolsonaro, Brazilian presidential candidate, top center, during a campaign rally in Sao Joao de Meriti, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, on Saturday, Sep...