Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction: College football picks, best bets, odds

There have been plenty of controversial changes in college football in recent years, but you’d be hard-pressed to find any die-hard out there who is upset that the powers that be have added more weeknight games.The MAC used to be the only midweek show in town, but the Sun Belt will take center stage for this season’s first Tuesday night kickoff.Troy and Southern Miss will do the honors in Southeastern Alabama on Tuesday.The Trojans are 9.5-point favorites at home.Blake Anderson has his hands full at Southern Miss this season.The Golden Eagles put together a compelling 2025 season under Charles Huff, but they did it with his transfers from his previous stop, Marshall, and then Huff took a lot of his best charges with him to his next stop, Memphis, this summer.
It’s one thing to need to restart a program from scratch, but to do it as the third head coach in as many years is something else entirely.The results and numbers have been expectedly ugly in Hattiesburg.Not only is Southern Miss 0-3 against FBS opponents (1-3 overall) this season, but they grade out as the 128th-best team in FBS according to SP+, and Jeff Sagarin has them 140th in Division I, behind several FCS schools.It’s a long road ahead of Anderson and the Golden Eagles.Troy isn’t a world-beater by any stretch, but the Trojans at least had a foundation to build on from last season, Gerad Parker’s second in charge.A key part of that foundation is struggling senior QB Goose Crowder.This is a great chance for the Gardendale, Ala., native to turn his season around against a defense that ranks 132nd in SP+ this season.The Golden Eagles are actually OK against the pass, but they’re abysmal at stopping the run, allowing 5.8 yards per rush (129th in FBS).That should open up time and space for Crowder to get in rhythm and hopefully recapture some of his late 2025 form.With the defense struggling, the onus falls on the Southern Miss offense to provide some cover, but the Golden Eagles aren’t pulli...