Ball State vs. Northwestern prediction: Cardinals can cover massive spread
We call this weekly column “Ugly Underdogs” for a reason.What we saw from Rutgers against Indiana last weekend was U-G-L-Y.
The Scarlet Knights didn’t score until they were down 37-0 in the third quarter, sealing our fate.We’ll look to get back above .500 on the season and end our two-game slide by betting on arguably the worst team in FBS against one of 2026’s most pleasant surprises.There may not be any program riding the wave quite like Northwestern right now.Not only did the Wildcats open up their brand-new stadium with a win last Friday night, but they did it in style over a marquee opponent.
Northwestern crushed Penn State, 34-13, to run their record to 3-1 overall and 4-0 against the spread.It was one of the biggest nights in the history of a program that doesn’t get to party like that too often.But this version of Northwestern does seem different.
Instead of being labeled as plucky overachievers, the 2026 Wildcats are going out and beating teams with pizzazz.Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has developed immediate chemistry with quarterback Aidan Chiles, and they’ve significantly raised the ceiling of this team in a very short amount of time.The defense is a different story for Northwestern.
While they grade out alright overall, there are some red flags.Northwestern is allowing just 16.3 points per game against FBS opponents this season, but that number is being buoyed by a stingy red-zone defense and strong numbers on third down.
Bending but not breaking is a skill, and Tim McGarigle’s unit seems to have it, but the Wildcats will need to improve on their yards per play allowed (5.6) if they’re going to really do something special this season.Of course, these issues are not likely to cost them too much against Ball State.The Cardinals check into this game ranked No.
134 (out of 138) in FBS by SP+, which is Bill Connelly’s catch-all power rankings.Jeff Sagarin, another immensely respected modeler in college football, has Ball State ...