NFL Week 7 early predictions: Patriots vs. Bears, Giants vs. Texans, Packers vs. Lions best bets
Closing line-value is the game here.Last week we nailed the Texans +3, an important number, and the line swiftly moved in our direction as Houston closed +2. They won outright in London, of course, but getting in early provided a great hedge opportunity.We did not receive the same fortune from the Bills.They barely beat the Raiders, who covered the 5-point spread. We move on to Week 7 with these early predictions to target before the “Monday Night Football” matchup.Targeting this early week “Thursday Night Football” matchup as the Patriots are still being a bit undervalued in my view.
The Bears mostly annihilated the Falcons, but their DVOA rating remained virtually unchanged thanks to a terrible 6.0 yards per play this year. New England has a better DVOA rating and I don’t think this hook lasts for very long.I expect the Giants to turn to J.J.McCarthy this week and move this line closer to 7.5 before kickoff.
Far from a guarantee, and I’m projecting a lot here, but that’s using deductive reasoning, and that’s how you beat lines by two-plus points.Big Blue had a terrible showing in Week 6 against a hapless Saints squad; I think the Texans are legitimately excellent as well.But McCarthy looks like a legitimate player, and I’m all-in on him being the starter for the Giants this week and beyond.Green Bay is a team I’m backing again this week.
They’re far better than the betting market is saying.They expect to get back Josh Jacobs this week, which should help them against a bad Lions defense.Detroit had the benefit of a bye week, but the Packers’ defense is quietly rated No.
8 in DVOA. Their offense is the only thing holding them back from being a top-10 team (No.22 in offensive DVOA). Jacobs might be helpful in that regard.
I think you’re looking at Lions -1.5 by kickoff on Sunday.Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The...