How the midterms will shape 2028 and beyond: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur explains why the results of the midterms will have reverberations long after President Donald Trump is out of office.Plus, we look at a long-running GOP streak that is at risk next month.
— Adam WollnerHow the midterms will shape 2028 and beyondAnalysis by Sahil KapurThe winners of Congress in the 2026 midterms will wield power to shape the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term, from his legislative agenda to his administrative and judicial appointees.But the outcome of next month’s election will reverberate well beyond the Trump presidency, carrying enormous consequences for his successor in the White House.Beyond which party controls the two chambers, the margins will also matter.Start with the Senate.
The winners will be elected to six-year terms, meaning they’ll serve through January 2033, or the end of the next president’s first term.If Democrats manage to win in GOP-leaning states like Texas, Alaska and Iowa — as polls indicate they might — the impact would endure well beyond Trump.And if Republicans fail to hold even redder states like Kansas or Nebraska, that would significantly narrow their path to recapturing the Senate in 2028, even if they have a strong year.The 2028 Senate map will require Democrats to defend seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Republicans failed to capture those seats in a favorable midterm environment in 2022, so it’ll be even more challenging to win them in a presidential cycle while they control the White House.In addition, the GOP will have to defend seats in purple states like North Carolina and Wisconsin that year.(This year’s Ohio Senate race is an exception because it’s a special election for a two-year term, so the seat will come before voters again in 2028....