NFL Week 7 Survivor picks: Strategy, analysis, model picks

Everyone got burned on the Rams last week – we tried to talk you out of taking them.The only issue was that the other three options we proposed last week also lost.The Giants were 1.5-point favorites and jumped out to a 10-point lead before falling apart, while the Titans pulled off their first win of the season as seven-point underdogs. If you’re still alive, you probably backed the Patriots to beat the Jets.We move on to Week 7, if you’re still alive, with our best survivor picks for this week, though you will notice that I’m fading the Texans for now, until we see who is starting at quarterback for Big Blue.I believe in Aaron Glenn? My model doesn’t like the spread here; my model has the Jets -4.5 against the spread, so you’re getting one rather meaningless point. Regardless, the Dolphins are rated No.

32 in DVOA.The Jets are probably the worst team you’ll ever back in survivor, but they’re sizeable favorites and even off a bye week, Miami doesn’t do much of anything well. They’re rated No.

31 in offensive DVOA and No.30 in defensive DVOA.

Miami is also No.20 in net yards per play, while the Jets sit at No.

13. It’s not a mismatch by any means, but the Jets are an intriguing option to get a leg up on your opponents.Hand up, I figured the Titans would cover, but Indianapolis losing outright at home is a mortal embarrassment that cost Chris Ballard his job.The Colts are allowing the most yards per play in the league (6.0) and posting just 4.7 YPP on offense (25th). Naturally, they have the second-worst net yards per play in the league behind only the Cardinals. The Colts face the No.1 defense in DVOA, and Daniel Jones won’t be able to handle that in a hostile environment.This is the best time to use the Vikings all season, with the next best time being Week 12 against the Falcons.Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.

During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at T...