Regardless of the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, any party that wins the majority will have done so because of the independent vote.For the past several elections, this cohort has been the crucial swing vote that ultimately decides the election.
Independents are the kingmakers.If Democrats win big on Nov.3, expect a familiar story.
Pundits will call it a mandate.Party leaders will say voters want their agenda.
They will be wrong.I have spent my career in partisan politics, and I keep seeing the same mistake.Both parties read the results of a protest as an endorsement.LEE CARTER: POLLS SAY DEMOCRATS COULD SWAMP REPUBLICANS.
AS A POLLSTER, I HAVE A QUESTIONHere is why.Independents do not fit neatly into a partisan box.
They are not secret Democrats, and they are not secret Republicans.They agree with each side on some things and with neither on others, which is exactly why neither party can claim them.That does not mean they lack convictions.
Independents, like most Americans, have coherent views on politics and policy.And these positions are widely shared and present opportunity for meaningful legislation.
On energy, 70% of Americans want government to actively expand supply: more energy, lower prices, less pollution.On immigration, 77% want legal immigration maintained or expanded, focused on the skills the economy needs.
Respect our laws, and welcome those who contribute.WASHINGTON REWARDS FAILURE.ITâS TIME TO SEND CAREER POLITICIANS HOMEOn technology, 83% want parents to have the legal right to see and control what their kids do on social media.
On spending, 73% want to bar Congress from using accounting tricks that hide the long-term cost of a bill.On corruption, 78% support term limits for members of Congress.A growing share of the country is independent, yet very few members of Congress are.
That gap is the story behind the story this November.Put those together and the agenda is clear.Live within our means.
Keep our promises.Win the fu...