Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State predictions: Aggies keep it close in Las Cruses
Jacksonville State has turned into a model of consistency at the FBS level.The Gamecocks won nine, nine, and eight games in their first three seasons in the big leagues, and they’re well on their way to hitting those marks again, at 5-2 through their first seven games in 2026.But there are some signs that Jax State is riding their luck a bit this season.
The Gamecocks are 3-0 in Conference USA, but their two most recent wins (Kennesaw State and FIU) came by a combined four points.The Gamecocks will need to improve if they’re going to take care of business as a 3.5-point favorite on the road against New Mexico State on Wednesday.Inconsistent play is par for the course in Conference USA, but New Mexico State takes things to a new level.The Aggies have had some impressive performances, including a closer-than-it-looked loss to Florida State and a rout of Western Kentucky, but they’ve also had some drab showings against FIU, Hawaii, and New Mexico.The biggest issue for the Aggies has been an inefficient offense that turns the ball over too much, but New Mexico State’s defense can make amends for their transgressions with the football.The Aggies rank 46th in FBS in yards per play, and they’re a top-30 unit when it comes to stopping the run.Jacksonville State’s offense boasts a strong statistical profile, but they really struggle at finishing drives.
The Gamecocks rank 77th in red-zone scoring percentage, which explains why they’re struggling to put teams away.New Mexico State, on the other hand, thrives at finishing drives, which makes the Aggies a real threat to hang around and stick within this number.The Play: New Mexico State +3.5 (-110, DraftKings)Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry.He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports....