Californias billionaire tax gets a brutal reality check ahead of Election Day heres what traders expect to pass

California’s billionaire tax is looking like a long shot, with prediction-market traders betting the controversial measure will go down in flames as voters prepare to decide 14 statewide propositions next week.Kalshi and Polymarket International’s displayed markets put several proposals in strong positions, while others, including a voter ID requirement and a mandate for community health clinics, are drawing much lower passage estimates.Here’s how the numbers stack up, according to the displayed market odds:Housing and infrastructureState finances and electionsTaxes and spending rulesVoting, health care and the environmentCalifornians can trade on these political outcomes because prediction-market contracts are treated under a different legal and regulatory framework from sports betting.Federal law classifies prediction markets as financial derivatives rather than sports gambling, allowing platforms such as Kalshi and the US-regulated version of Polymarket to operate under that framework.The percentages represent market-implied chances of passage, not official forecasts or election results.They can shift as traders buy and sell contracts, and they do not guarantee how voters will ultimately decide....