UFC Fight Night Vegas 123 predictions: Picks, best bets for Moicano-Nolan, full card
A Happy Halloween from the UFC.For the first time in six years, the UFC returns on Halloween night with a decent card this weekend.Twelve fights are on tap, headlined by Renato Moicano against Tom Nolan, a legitimately fun lightweight bout.Nine of those fights are expected to end inside the distance, according to the oddsmakers.Let’s dive in to the best bets of UFC Vegas 123:Moicano has been a bit of a gatekeeper for this division, losing only to the best that 155 pounds has to offer.
He even has some wins against elite talent.He defeated Benoit Saint Denis by knockout and also submitted plenty of other solid fighters, including Alexander Hernandez and Jai Herbert.This fight is the biggest of Nolan’s career, by far.
He headlines a UFC event for the first time and has never gone a full 25 minutes in his MMA career.Moicano represents a sizeable step up in competition for Nolan.For that reason, I’m targeting Moicano to continue to turn away lesser competition as Nolan doesn’t defend takedowns too well and he’s been knocked down twice against far worse competition.Can’t trust Nolan in this fight, and I’ll instead target Moicano to win inside the distance of this five-round fight.Prediction: Moicano wins inside the distance (+200, FanDuel).We’ll learn everything we need to know about Smith this week.Smith, who is arguably the best athlete in the UFC, has been one of the most sought-after prospects in UFC history, coming in as a massive favorite in all of his fights as the biggest 170-pound fighter out there.Saturday’s co-main event fight against Randy Brown is the lowest favorite he’s been in his six-fight UFC career.Brown, nicknamed “Rudeboy,” is a grizzled vet, with 22 UFC fights to his record, but through all of those I can’t find an athlete as impressive as Smith.Smith is taking this fight on short notice, but I still see Smith’s price as a bargain, all things considered.Smith averages an obscene 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and a mass...