Raiders vs. Jets prediction, best bets: Geno Smith airs it out in Week 8

The Raiders were a feel-good story early on in the season when they started of 3-0 and the Jets have been the kings of moral victories so far.Something has to give, though, as both teams are quickly falling behind midway through the season.For all the positives each team can point to, a win is crucial for both sides of this matchup Sunday at MetLife.The Jets are 1.5-point favorites, but the public is on the Raiders as underdogs leading up to kickoff.Low expectations can be a gift and a curse.

Any indication that a team might be better than terrible raises expectations just enough to allow disappointment to creep back in when they don’t meet them.These two teams epitomize the frustration that comes from beating low expectations; the Raiders are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) and the Jets are 4-2-1, joining the Browns (5-2) and Colts (4-3) as the only teams with winning ATS records and a negative margin of victory.To quote the great Dennis Green, these teams “are who we thought they were.”While running back Ashton Jeanty’s comments about poor tackling has taken up much of the conversation entering this game, the the Jets should be more focused on the Raiders’ pass defense.

Teams have been able to exploit the Raiders through the air all season and Geno Smith will have a golden opportunity to take advantage this week.The Raiders allow 11.8 yards per completion on defense and have given up 16 scores through the air, which is the second-most in the NFL this season.Braelon Allen has been effective as a runner since moving into the starting spot and can give the Jets enough balance to keep the Raiders honest.If Smith can avoid the sacks — he has taken the fourth-most this season — he should cap off drives against a Raiders defense that allows touchdowns on 78.6 percent of its drives in the red zone.I’ll grab the Over on Smith’s passing touchdown prop at 1.5.The Pick: Geno Smith Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100, DraftKings)Malik Smith has been immersed in...