Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur explains how a pair of controversies in Michigan and Alaska could impact the broader battle for Senate control.Plus, Rebecca Shabad examines President Donald Trump’s election eve message.
— Adam WollnerHow the Michigan and Alaska dramas shape the fight for the SenateAnalysis by Sahil KapurAn “October surprise” and a “November surprise” have rocked the Senate races in Alaska and Michigan, which are critical chess pieces in the battle for the majority.To understand why these contests are so important, consider two scenarios.The “red wall” scenario: Picture this: Democrats are having a good night and hold every seat they are defending, including in Michigan.They flip North Carolina.
And they accomplish their long-held goal of unseating GOP Sen.Susan Collins in Maine.
That would leave Democrats with 49 seats.Other targets would include five states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.There’s a plausible scenario where Democratic candidates in those states overperform by 10 points compared to the 2024 presidential margin, and still lose all of them.
The “blue tsunami” scenario: Now consider this: Michigan and Maine tip into the Democratic column and, one by one, all five of the red states start to fall.The blue wave turns into a tsunami and breaches the walls of MAGA country.Through some mix of depressed Republican turnout, swing-voter movement and high Democratic enthusiasm, Democrats win Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska.
That’s their dream scenario, and it’d result in a 54-46 Senate majority.And if South Carolina flips, that’s 55 seats.The Michigan and Alaska scenarios: That brings us to two states that have sparked controversy lately.In Michigan, Haley St...