Midterms coverage: Live results | What to know | Stories around the countryStay connected: NPR Politics Podcast | NPR Politics newsletter | NPR appDemocrats appear poised to retake control of the House on Tuesday.If they do, will their majority be built upon a blue wave or a tiny trickle? A previous NPR analysis found both parties spending deep and wide in a competitive landscape that spans 70 districts, ranging from longtime tossups to newly-competitive seats in deeply conservative areas.Republicans came into Election Day with a narrow 218-214 seat advantage in the House and facing severe headwinds as the party in power.
This midterm cycle has also seen a record number of departures from Congress, and polls show voters aren't happy about things like the economy and the ongoing war in Iran.So what separates a good night for Democrats from a blue wave that sees dozens of House seats change hands? Here's NPR's cheat sheet to four types of House races to watch as results come in:The first results of the night with national implications will likely be from Kentucky's 5th Congressional District (KY-06) and Indiana's 5th (IN-5), two districts where polls close first (in the 6 p.m.ET hour) and whose 2024 margins for President Trump (15 and 17 points, respectively) could act as a preview for how much voters have soured on Republicans.Democrats and Republicans alike have spent heavily in the Kentucky race, where Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado, so the increased investment is worth noting as a factor on the outcome.
If Democrats flip one or both of these races, then it will likely be a long night for the GOP.Florida also counts and reports its votes quickly, and is home to more than a half dozen races that are viewed as toss-ups or slightly favor one party or the other, so as these districts have projected winners there will be more insight into other races across the country.Like the Kentucky contest, both parties have spent significant sums in races li...