Gaming Out the Prospect of a Blue Wave

ImageAndrew here.It is Election Day.

We’re going to get ahead of ourselves: If the polls are right and Democrats win big — and we acknowledge the outcome may be otherwise — what could happen over the next two years? We’ve talked about the prospect of congressional hearings involving the Trump family, cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and prediction markets, among other topics.But could there be deals made between the Trump administration and Congress on issues like health care? Much more below.What Democrats might doPolitical pollsters and bettors on prediction markets are mostly in agreement: This could be a rough day for the Republican Party and President Trump after Americans vote in the U.S.

midterm elections.The prospect of a blue wave — even a “blue tsunami,” as Nate Silver, the political analyst, calls it — is already changing the playbooks on trading floors and in boardrooms, Bernhard Warner reports.A Democratic sweep of the House and Senate and a strong showing in statehouses across the country could have a profound effect on policy, including on:artificial intelligence and data centerscryptocurrencyhealth care spendingthe policing of prediction marketsIt may also lead to nastier budget disputes, and it could increase the risk of government shutdowns.Trump seems to be bracing for a threat to his power — and to his inner circle.On Monday, he told Miranda Devine, the New York Post columnist, that he was open to pre-emptive pardons for top allies and supporters, including Elon Musk.

The president downplayed the idea that Democrats wanted to arrest Musk or go after his business empire, including by nationalizing SpaceX.That said, Robert Reich, the former labor secretary, recently argued on his podcast that Democrats should do just that if they regained control of Congress.Calls had been growing from both parties for Musk to be investigated over the decision to throttle Starlink in Ukraine last month, briefly hobbling the country’s ...