Thursday Night Football has a massive favorite and a home underdog nobody wants to touch.Jacksonville is laying 9.5 points in Baltimore after the Ravens lost two quarterbacks in one game, and the moneyline on the home team has climbed to nearly 4-to-1.
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5, 2026 at 8:15 p.m.ET | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD | Prime VideoWhat the Market SeesThe case for Jacksonville is obvious.
Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve after thumb surgery, Tyler Huntley’s season is reportedly over with turf toe, and Skylar Thompson is on IR.Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano gets the start after going 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception and a lost fumble in Buffalo.
The Ravens have lost three straight and are 7-13 all-time without Jackson.The Jaguars, meanwhile, are 5-2 with the NFL’s best point differential at +85.Trevor Lawrence has 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, and Jacksonville just beat the Colts 42-7.
Baltimore opened as a three-point favorite.The line has moved more than 12 points since.What the Market Might Be MissingBig line moves create inflated prices, and that’s where a protected first bet becomes valuable.
Thursday games are notoriously unpredictable on short rest, and the home team doesn’t have to travel.Baltimore can lean on its defense, run the ball and turn this into a low-possession grind where one turnover changes everything.Rookie quarterbacks also tend to surprise in their first starts when the opponent hasn’t seen any tape on them.
Jacksonville has spent the week preparing for a quarterback with one rough relief appearance.Baltimore has won three of the l...