Jaguars vs. Ravens prediction, best bet: Jacksonvilles elite defense spells TNF trouble for Joe Fagnano

There’s baptism by fire, and then there is Joe Fagnano’s last four days. Plunged into action after both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley exited with injuries in Sunday’s 36-10 loss to Josh Allen and the vaunted Bills, the undrafted rookie now must make his first NFL start against an elite Jacksonville defense on short rest.Oh, and he is nursing an ankle injury of his own. Baltimore’s quarterback catastrophe and three-game skid have fueled a 14.5-point swing, turning the Ravens from 4.5-point favorites when the early line was released into 10-point home underdogs.The Jaguars, 5-2, are beginning to run away with the AFC South while the Ravens, 4-4, sit last in the AFC North. Fagnano struggled mightily in his debut, completing only 47.6 percent of his passes for 91 yards while throwing an interception, fumbling, and eating three sacks. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are rolling off a 42-7 demolition of the Colts.Not that Indianapolis has been any standard of excellence, but the Jaguars led 28-0 at halftime, forced three turnovers, and capped it at 4.0 yards per play. According to Sharp Football Analysis, which isolates true, deep dropbacks in its pressure-rate calculations, Jacksonville enters M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday ranked sixth in pressure rate (39.2 percent), while Baltimore’s offensive line ranks 26th in pressure rate allowed (40.9 percent).Without Jackson on the field, the Ravens have averaged 4.6 yards per play, a mark that would rank 30th in the NFL.Derrick Henry figures to shoulder the offensive burden, but he’ll need to puncture a run defense that isn’t so forgiving: the Jaguars have yielded the fewest yards to running backs, giving them 57.7 per game and 3.3 yards per carry. The other problem for Henry is the game script.

He’s managed 60 or fewer scrimmage yards in three straight games and has been largely eliminated from Baltimore’s offense in the second halves of recent losses.If the Ravens fall behind, Jacksonville can sell out a...