Fearmongering or fair warning? A fierce debate over how bad California's El Nio winter will get

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Set us as preferred For all the concerns about a historic El Niño fueling epic storms striking California this winter, there is still a surprising amount of debate among experts about how bad it will actually be.Scientists are highly confident about the risk of coastal seawater flooding and beach erosion — fueled by rising sea levels and strong surf — with king tides coming around Thanksgiving, Christmas and Martin Luther King Jr.Day.

But when it comes to predicting the power of winter storms, there is far less consensus.Officially, confidence of that is tempered, and some are emphasizing a wide range of possible outcomes.“We only have more moderate confidence, at best, of ...

freshwater flooding, debris flows associated with if we do see some of that heavier storm activity across Southern California,” said Robbie Munroe, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.The official seasonal precipitation outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that Southern California has a 60% to 70% chance of above-normal precipitation for January, February and March.

“But that still leaves about a 30% to 40% chance of near- or below-normal precipitation, and so this winter is not a slam dunk in terms of how the overall season will occur,” Munroe said.Three of the last four winters brought Southern California above-normal rain, and only one of them coincided with an El Niño.“So even if we see above-normal precipitation, it doesn’t mean it’s going to be much different than what we’ve seen recently,” Munroe added.“The big El Niño is setting the stage,” said Julie Kalansky, deputy director for the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego.

“El Niño doesn’t really dictate the outcome, but it really kind of tilts the odds for a wetter winter, esp...