Pacers vs. Thunder prediction: NBA Finals Game 5 pick, odds

With the series tied at two, the Pacers head back to Oklahoma City for Game 5 of the NBA Finals.Indiana has had a shocking run through these playoffs.Four games into the NBA Finals, they could easily be up 3-1 in this best-of-seven, even though they were big underdogs coming into the series.They were up double digits in the third quarter at home in Game 4 before letting the Thunder hang around a bit too long and eventually steal the game and tie the series.The Thunder’s defense has been remarkable on the perimeter, as Luguentz Dort gets the assignment of defending Tyrese Haliburton and making him look foolish at points in these last few games.The officiating has certainly been a spot of contention for fans and Pacers coach Rick Carlisle, but it’s the defense that has been allowed to get physical after the half-court line that has shifted this series.If Oklahoma City is allowed to continue its hard-nosed defensive style of hounding their perimeter ball handlers, it will be in a great position to win this game at home.Indiana is a massive 9.5-point underdog tonight, after narrowly missing the cover last time out as 6.5-point pooches.My model makes this line Thunder -12.5, and I’ll ride that projection.After re-watching Game 4, it seemed like the Thunder figured out the Pacers in the second half and broke them down.I suspect the Thunder will win the series in six games, which isn’t exactly a hot take considering that’s the favored outcome on DraftKings (+105).Oklahoma City’s reluctance to shoot from 3-point range has been a strange strategy; they took just 16 shots from beyond the arc in Game 4 and made only three (18.8 percent).I feel like that could lead us to an under pick, but my model is only giving us a 1.59 percent edge to the under, a far cry from the 5.09 percent we have on the spread.Back the Thunder here to separate themselves from the Pacers early and get a big Game 5 win and put themselves in pole position to close out the series in Indiana.PI...