HANOI, Vietnam -- China is replacing its diesel trucks with electric models faster than expected, potentially reshaping global fuel demand and the future of heavy transport.In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran on diesel.By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy truck sales, up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider.
The British research firm BMI forecasts electric trucks will reach nearly 46% of new sales this year and 60% next year.Heavy trucks carry the lifeblood of modern economies.They also contribute significantly to global emissions of carbon-dioxide: In 2019, road freight generated a third of all transport-related carbon emissions.
Trucking has been considered hard to decarbonize since electric trucks with heavy batteries can carry less cargo than those using energy-dense diesel.Proponents of liquefied natural gas have viewed it as a less polluting option while technology for electric heavy vehicles matures.Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is natural gas cooled to a liquid fuel for easy storage and transport.
China’s trucking fleet, the world’s second-largest after the U.S., still mainly runs on diesel, but the landscape is shifting.Transport fuel demand is plateauing, according to the International Energy Agency and diesel use in China could decline faster than many expect, said Christopher Doleman, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
Electric trucks now outsell LNG models in China, so its demand for fossil fuels could fall, and "in other countries, it might never take off,” he said.The share of electrics in new truck sales, from 8% in 2024 to 28% by August 2025, has more than tripled as prices have fallen.
Electric trucks outsold LNG-powered vehicles in China for five consecutive months this year, according to Commercial Vehicle World.While electric trucks are twice to three times more expen...