Irans rulers down but not out: Civilians liberty hinges on what happens next
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a man whose life has been defined by the harshness of his rhetoric against the West (specifically, the US and Israel) and his ruthless rule, has died a martyr’s death under the rubble of his compound in Pasteur, Tehran.It was always going to end this way.Khamenei came to prominence as a revolutionary first and then second as a wartime leader when he assumed the role of president of Iran during the Iran-Iraq war.The Islamic Republic is facing its most serious crisis since January, when it set about killing its way out of nationwide protests.In the absence of a supreme leader, it has turned to a committee-style temporary leadership whilst its organs of state choose a new ruler.
It is thought that the new leader could be former reformist President Hassan Rouhani or Hassan Khomeini, grandson of Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader.The streets of Iran are simultaneously jubilant, fearful and vengeful.The Islamic Republic is certainly weak and definitely unpopular, but how close to the toppling point it really is we will only find out in the coming days.President Donald Trump’s diplomatic style with Iran has been nothing if not confusing.
Having enacted crippling sanctions on the Islamic Republic and killed Qassem Soleimani in his first term, his second administration began with a meeting between Elon Musk and Said Iravani, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York.Since then, Trump has oscillated between diplomatic pressure and military threats and occasional forays into creative diplomacy through the talks.At the height of the protests, Trump reached for an ideological tone, seeking to portray himself as a defender of the Iranian people, calling for Iranians to overthrow a heavily armed and utterly brutal regime with little more than their bare hands.Let’s not forget that under Trump, support for Iranian dissident media outlets in the US has all but ended, and that USAID, a vanguard of soft power a...