Kalshi refuses to pay winnings on $54M trade related to Khameneis death, drawing user fury

Prediction market Kalshi has drawn outrage for refusing to pay out winnings on a $54 million trade related to the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Many bettors assumed they had won big on wagers that Khamenei would be “out as Supreme Leader” by Saturday after he was killed in joint US-Israeli air strikes over the weekend.But Kalshi – an American prediction market that allows users to bet on politics, sports, foreign affairs and pop culture – announced it would not be paying out any winnings on those wagers, since its guidelines prohibit markets “directly tied to death.”“Literally go f–k yourselves.This is RIDICULOUS,” one user tweeted, adding a photo that showed they placed a $72.90 bet that could’ve paid out $936 – but only got $18.72 from Kalshi.Furious users quickly vowed to delete their accounts, accusing Kalshi of withholding fair-and-square gains and changing its rules at the last minute.An Israeli-American business executive in New York had placed two bets totaling $3,460 that Khamenei would be “out” by March or April 1, and the Kalshi app showed he won payouts worth more than $63,000 – but then the trade was frozen.“I was booking my trip to Courchevel,” he jokingly told the Washington Post, referring to the luxurious French Alps ski resort.

“Then they changed the rules … and everybody got screwed.”Earlier this week, prediction market rival Polymarket faced heated backlash from Democratic lawmakers after six suspected insiders made $1.2 million on contracts tied to the strikes on Iran – including an alleged $550,000 windfall related to Khamenei’s death.Democratic Sen.Chris Murphy of Connecticut said he would draw up legislation to ban bets tied to government actions – as critics have raised concerns that markets tied to death could incentivize assassinations and acts of violence, as well as insider trading from officials.“This is American commercial immorality on steroids,” Murphy told th...