2026 Belmont Stakes picks: How should bettors play the favorite Renegade?

Renegade did not win the Kentucky Derby, but his second-place finish on the First Saturday in May only strengthened his reputation as the best 3-year-old in the sport.Drawn into the dreaded No.1 post, Renegade was quickly squeezed toward the back of the pack at Churchill Downs and had to make up a ton of ground to even contend for a spot on the podium.Few, if any, horses have the toolkit and mentality to make up 12 lengths in any race, but to do so in the Kentucky Derby, where there is chaos everywhere, is an incredible accomplishment, even if Renegade lost by a neck to Golden Tempo.If Renegade had a bit more runway, or wasn’t forced to go as wide on the turn from home, he would have won the Derby and would be even shorter than the 2-1 price he was tagged with on the morning line for the Belmont Stakes.If betting were straightforward — just pick the winner without worrying about odds — this would be an easy puzzle to solve.

Renegade is the best horse in this field, and he’s the likeliest to cross the finish line first, so you’d just select him and be done with it.But that’s not how this game works.Price trumps everything in betting, and you have to take into account Renegade’s extremely short price, which could get even shorter as we approach post time Saturday evening in Saratoga.Consider this: Renegade was a lukewarm 5-1 favorite on the morning line for the Kentucky Derby.Whether because of his post position or because other horses were more trendy, Mike Repole’s contender wasn’t all that popular (at least relative to most morning-line favorites) at the betting window.

One month later, Renegade’s price has been slashed by 60 percent, despite going up against another elite field.Chief Wallabee, Commandment and Emerging Market were all 8/1 or shorter at the Derby, and Golden Tempo won the race.

All of them are in this field.Renegade is the horse to beat.But his price is so unappealing, and is likely to get worse, that you’re going to have t...