Redistricting has given GOP unexpected midterm advantage. But can they win?

The mid-decade redistricting war that began in Texas has settled down — for now.Given the Supreme Court’s green light to political gerrymandering, there are plenty of dominoes yet to fall — but both sides are now dug in for this fall’s 2026 House midterms, and the contest has taken clear shape.Will Republicans be able to keep their narrow majority, and the White-House-friendly agenda control that goes with it?Or will Democrats take advantage of the president’s poor approval ratings and grab the ability to subpoena his administration?If this were a normal midterm election, Democrats regaining control of the House would be almost a foregone conclusion.Republicans currently hold just 218 out of 435 seats; additionally, independent Rep.Kevin Kiley of California caucuses with his former party.There are four vacancies, formerly filled by one Republican and three Democrats.In other words, Republicans’ current majority is about as slim as can be, such that if Democrats flip even a handful of seats, they will elect the next Speaker.Democrats are justifiably bullish about their prospects: the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections.In the 19 held since the end of WWII, the out-party has gained an average of 24 seats.

In just two of these years — 1998 and 2002 — did the president’s party eke out a modest gain.Republicans’ gerrymandering spoils give them a somewhat better chance than in a normal cycle, though.Likely GOP gains include five seats in Texas, four in Florida, one or two in Ohio, and one each in Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama.That’s offset by likely Democratic gains of five seats in California and one in Utah (where a court-ordered redraw created a district centered on Salt Lake City).It appeared that a new, referendum-approved map in Virginia would get Democrats four more seats, but the state’s Supreme Court said that procedural irregularities made the move constitutionally invalid.Mean...