More than two decades ago, as a Pentagon strategist during the run-up to the Iraq War in 2003, I found myself asking a question that received far less attention than troop movements, air strikes or invasion plans: What happens after the initial victory?Military planners focused on defeating Saddam Hussein's regime.I remained concerned about what would follow.
Even with access to senior-level planning discussions and classified assessments, I believed too many assumptions were being made about the peace that was supposed to emerge after the fighting stopped.That same question returned to me Sunday when President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had reached a memorandum of understanding to end nearly four months of war and that he was authorizing the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S.naval blockade.
A formal signing ceremony is set for Friday, June 19, in Geneva, with Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif serving as host.The guns are falling silent.Diplomats are returning to the table.
Oil futures dropped 4% and equity markets rallied on the news.Those developments should not be dismissed.WHAT COMES NEXT IN THE IRAN WAR? WHAT THIS CEASEFIRE WILL AND WON'T DOThe Iranian-flagged Touska cargo ship pours smoke out after U.S.
forces launched missiles at it's control room following its violation of the U.S.blockade in the Strait of Hormuz on April 20, 2026.
(U.S.Central Command (CENTCOM))But history teaches us that ending a war and securing a durable peace are not the same thing.Trump deserves credit for bringing this conflict to this point.
He was scheduled to arrive in Evian-les-Bains today, June 15, for the G7 summit running June 15- 17 with genuine momentum.Last year he left the G7 in Canada early because of the growing conflict.
This year he arrives having announced its tentative end.TRUMP IS REALIGNING WORLD ENERGY MARKETS AND THE IRAN STRIKES ARE ACTUALLY HELPINGThe economic stakes were sev...