Why oil isnt spiking: Iran ships 20 million barrels while China slashes imports
It was a wild week for oil markets.Iran shipped roughly 20 million barrels of crude into global markets after an interim agreement with the Trump administration loosened restrictions on Iranian exports and helped reopen the Strait of Hormuz — responsible for a fifth of the world’s oil flow during ordinary times.The sudden release of supply helped drive oil sharply lower from its spring highs and pushed the US average for gasoline prices below $4 a gallon.Crude prices clawed back some ground Friday after follow-up peace talks between Washington and Tehran that were scheduled for Geneva were abruptly postponed, injecting fresh uncertainty into the market.
On top of that, confusion pervaded after an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps statement suggested the waterway had been closed again — only for Iran’s Foreign Ministry to later say it was, in fact, open.Follow The Post’s live coverage of President Trump and national politics for the latest news and analysisBrent crude traded around $80.50 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $77.50 as of Friday afternoon.Yet the bigger surprise is what didn’t happen.Despite more than 100 days of disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and months of uncertainty surrounding Hormuz, oil never experienced the sustained spike many analysts expected.“China is the key variable,” LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach wrote in a research note this week.According to Roach, Chinese crude imports fell to 6.7 million barrels per day last month, nearly 40% below the 2025 average.The reduction amounts to roughly 4 million barrels a day of lost demand — a staggering decline that he notes is “equal to the combined oil consumption of Germany and France.”That collapse in Chinese buying has helped offset what otherwise would have been a severe supply shock.Bloomberg reported that 11 tankers carrying a combined 20 million barrels departed Iran’s Chabahar port this week after months of restrictions that had effe...