It's been nearly four decades since a Democrat won a U.S.Senate election in reliably red Texas.But a new poll suggests that Democrats have a good shot this year of breaking their long losing streak.Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, the longtime state attorney general, are tied at 47% support among likely voters in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena survey released on Tuesday.Paxton, who defeated longtime GOP incumbent Sen.
John Cornyn in last month's Republican nomination runoff election just days after landing the backing of President Donald Trump, is facing off against Talarico, a state representative considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, in a midterm race that is among a handful that will likely determine if the Republicans hold their slim Senate majority.MAGA TRIUMPH: PAXTON TOPS CORNYN IN BATTLE FOR GOP SENATE NOMINATIONTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Republicans' Senate nominee, speaks during a runoff election night event in Plano, Texas, on May 26, 2026.(Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg via Getty Images)The poll points to some troubling signs for Paxton, who has faced a slew of scandals and legal problems that have battered him over the past decade.
In 2023, the Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach Paxton, but he was eventually acquitted of all charges by the state Senate.And Paxton is dealing with a messy divorce, with his wife Angela, a state senator, citing "biblical grounds" based on "recent discoveries" in filing last year to end their marriage.According to the poll, fewer than four in 10 respondents said Paxton has good character or the right kind of moral values.
And half said Paxton, a MAGA firebrand and one of the leaders of the legal effort to overturn Trump's 2020 presidential election loss, is too extreme.Also problematic for Paxton is that his support, at 47%, is below the 50% of respondents who said they preferred Republicans to control the Senate next year.The poll also s...