ATP Washington picks: Ben Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert tennis odds, predictions, best bets

Ben Shelton seems to know how to peak at the right time.The American has already made it to a pair of Grand Slam semifinals and three other quarterfinals, and he’s just about a year removed from his maiden Masters title at the 2025 Canadian Open.So, with the US Open right around the corner, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the 23-year-old start to hit his stride after a relatively quiet summer to date.Shelton, the No.

2 seed at ATP Washington, will take on Ugo Humbert in the headliner on Tuesday night.The former Florida Gator is a -190 favorite to advance to the quarterfinals.There are plenty of similarities between Humbert and Shelton.Both players are tall and powerful, and rely heavily on a massive first serve to win cheap points and keep their opponents on the back foot.Shelton ranks 15th on the ATP Tour in first-serve points percentage (76.9) and has tallied the eighth-most aces this season, while Humbert is 19th in first-serve points percentage (76.1) and 14th in aces.

The former does have the better numbers on his second serve; in fact, he’s got the best mark on the ATP Tour at 59.3 percent, but Humbert is the better player on return.Shelton is the better overall player; he ranks 12th in Tennis Abstract’s ELO Model, while Humbert is 30th, but the margins are really quite thin, especially since both players should rack up plenty of points with their first serve.This contest has tiebreakers written all over it, and it would be a surprise if it ends quickly.I like the Over 26.5 games at +132 on FanDuel, but another way to play into that angle is to back Shelton to rack up at least 13 aces at +230.If this match is tight and features a couple of tie-breakers, the big-serving American should have plenty of opportunities to hit that mark.The Play: Shelton over 13 aces (+230, FanDuel) | Over 26.5 games (+132)Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry.

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