As a soon-to-be seventh grader, Joshua Pederson's son is not exactly brimming with enthusiasm when he talks about the upcoming school year."The thing I'm looking forward to most in seventh grade is lunch, and the thing I'm looking forward to least is everything else," said the 12-year-old.Art is his passion, but he doesn't take classes.He likes teaching himself."I like drawing scary stuff and robots," he said.
"Because I think scary stuff and robots are cool."Two years ago, his parents, who live in Boston, noticed a lump around his ribs that quickly spiraled into a nightmare scenario: It was cancer.Pederson asked that his son's name be withheld to discuss details of his medical condition.After months of grueling chemotherapy and radiation, he was declared cancer-free last summer.Months later, however, the cancer returned.
So Pederson entered his son into a clinical trial for a novel treatment.That's around the time Pederson read the news that prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket have begun allowing people to bet on the outcomes of clinical trials and whether the Food and Drug Administration will approve new medications."What seemed to be missed in the CEO statements was the fact that there were going to be patients on the other side of these bets," said Pederson, who is a humanities professor at Boston University.Bettors will make or lose money based on the success or failure of a clinical trial, a situation Pederson views as horrific."A clinical trial failing is a more sanitized euphemism for, people are going to suffer, people are going to die, people are going to have one fewer clinical option available to them in one of the most difficult medical situations of their entire life," he said.Billions of dollars are traded every week on the lightly regulated prediction market sites, where users bet on everything from movie reviews to elections to conflicts in the Middle East.Clinical trials are just the latest area where the industry's rapid growth is rai...