An A.I. Tax Boom Could Curtail Americas Debt. But Not Solve It.

Artificial intelligence could fundamentally change the nature of work and transform the U.S.economy.

So its potential to alter the nation’s admittedly troubled fiscal trajectory may seem niche.Yet a growing number of economists have started to anticipate that widespread adoption of A.I.could structurally improve the imbalance between what America spends and what it collects in tax revenue in the coming years — as long as the technology does not put too many people out of work.That is because A.I.

could help make workers more productive, in turn growing the economy more rapidly.Faster economic growth would generate more tax revenue, helping to close the widening gap between what the government spends and the taxes it brings in.Not that this would amount to a total fiscal utopia.

Economists still expect the gross debt, now at about $40 trillion, to continue to grow, just less quickly than it might have without A.I.Several factors could impede or even reverse any budgetary progress, including the possibility that the gains from A.I.

are lightly taxed.And Congress could always splurge on spending increases or tax cuts, canceling out any fiscal gains.“The faster productivity growth from A.I.

is not going to solve our budget imbalance,” said Douglas Elmendorf, a former director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.“It will help the problem, but it will not be enough to solve it.”The consequences of A.I.

for the budget will largely hinge on whether — and to what extent — the technology reshapes the labor market.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe....