Michael Goodwin: Voluntary regime change in Iran appears to be a pipe dream despite Trumps efforts

With Monday’s quiet expiration of the 60-day cease-fire deal in Iran and no talks scheduled about a new agreement, the on-again, off-again war has entered a strange new phase.A big indication came Tuesday when President Trump declared that the vital Strait of Hormuz is now and will remain under American control.He posted a map where the waterway was labeled “new U.S.

territory.”In a quick and harsh reaction, Iran disputed his claim, with a deputy foreign minister calling it “delusional.” He said the strait will only be “opened and closed under Iran’s command, and as long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in delusions, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade.”If nothing else, the stalemate and hostile exchange suggest the possibility that while there is no settlement in sight, there is one dimension to the war that is taking on an air of finality.Namely, that there will not be any voluntary regime change in Tehran.That likelihood is a bitter pill to swallow for Israel and the United States, but both appear to have reconciled themselves to that result, if only because despite the awful pounding Iran has taken, there is still no movement toward a fundamental reform of leadership.

Although that was never a stated goal of the war, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly were hoping for it.Neither wanted to commit ground troops to such a dangerous operation, but there were discussions between them and their staffs about persuading Kurdish fighters to serve as the boots on the ground.There was also a belief that given an opening, Iranian civilians would be able to rise up and help overthrow the government.Israel reportedly pushed that idea to the US and believed it was a realistic option, although Trump and his national security team were not completely sold.And reports in Israeli media now say there was never an actual, detailed plan that was shared with the Israel Defense Forces about how and when to h...