As global attention remains fixed on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a petroleum geologist is warning that the more consequential energy story may be unfolding thousands of feet underground — and could continue long after any political agreement ends the fighting.Art Berman, a petroleum geologist and energy consultant with more than four decades of industry experience, told Fox News Digital that millions of barrels of Persian Gulf oil production remain shut in and warned that restoring those wells is far more complicated than simply reopening the strategic waterway."This is potentially a kind of a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues," Berman said."The bigger story and the more important one long term is that 8 million barrels of Persian Gulf production is currently shut in and world production is down about 10 million barrels a day," Berman explained.In an aerial view, Marathon Petroleum Corp's Los Angeles Refinery, one of the largest oil refineries in North America, operates as gas prices rocket upward due to worldwide oil supply disruptions caused by the U.S.and Israeli attack on Iran, on March 10, 2026 in Carson, California.
(David McNew/Getty Images)"We can move tankers around and we can obsess about, you know, are there 4 million barrels getting through or are there 6 million or 9 million or whatever the right number is," he added."But eventually, those tankers have to be filled with oil."A White House official, speaking on background, pointed to the sharp decline in oil prices following the signing of the MOU and said the Strait of Hormuz is open, with the U.S.
naval blockade in full effect.Berman's estimate of Gulf shut-ins is broadly consistent with the latest assessment from the International Energy Agency.The IEA said in its Aug.
12, 2026, Oil Market Report, "Gulf oil production rose by a further 2.5 mb/d in July to 23.9 mb/d, still 8.3 mb/d below pre-war levels."Global oil supply remained 6.3 million bpd below y...