Bessents bet that the mullahs cant bear the pain of war much longer just might pay off
President Trump’s “economic D-Day” against Iran has been greeted with understandable skepticism.Trump has spent a decade spectacularly undermining his own credibility — and America’s — and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s opening sanctions package against roughly 60 Iran-linked individuals, companies and vessels hardly resembled Normandy.Yet behind the theatrics lies a potentially powerful strategy in pursuit of a just cause, if the West shows some staying power.
Iran’s vile regime actually can be choked economically.But it will take months of pain.
The contest comes down to something simpler than sanctions architecture: Who can tolerate the pain longest?Iran is betting that Western political patience expires before Iran’s economic oxygen does.Jihadists have long viewed the West as decadent and incapable of sustained resolve, and dictatorships can impose hardships that democratic governments struggle to sustain politically.
But Iran’s clock has a physical limit.China buys more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil, with some estimates approaching 90%. Almost all of what Iran is selling was stashed offshore before the war, and has escaped the blockade — and it is running low and will run out.Already, Iranian shipments to China have fallen to roughly 534,000 barrels a day this month from about 1.4 million barrels daily last year, while Chinese refiners are already seeking replacement barrels from Iraq and Brazil.Iran has spent decades becoming remarkably adept at circumventing financial sanctions.
Tankers change identities, vessels go dark, cargoes move ship-to-ship, shell companies proliferate and payments migrate into yuan.China can buy Iranian oil outside the conventional dollar system, while Iran can spend yuan on Chinese goods.All that helps Iran disguise and monetize a barrel that reaches the world market.
It does not solve the problem of getting the next barrel out.Jask, Iran’s alternative terminal on the Gulf of Oman, offers li...