2026 NFL MVP prediction, odds, picks: Lamar Jackson carries value in new-look Ravens offense

The month of September means football is officially back, and with preseason dress rehearsals behind us, now is the time to call some shots toward major awards, including Most Valuable Player. Last season, Matthew Stafford authored a precise, dominant run, continuing the trend of quarterbacks capturing the award. In fact, since 2018, only five players, including Stafford, have taken home MVP honors, and they’re all signal callers.Josh Allen won it in 2024, and the other three two-time winners were Patrick Mahomes (2018, 2022), Aaron Rodgers (2020, 2021), and Lamar Jackson (2019, 2023). The last time a non-quarterback secured the hardware was in 2012, when Adrian Peterson dominated the league. The current odds board remains heavily tilted toward quarterbacks, as Allen (+600), Jackson (+800), and Joe Burrow (+850) headline the field as frontrunners at DraftKings Sportsbook. Stafford, at 14/1, offers intriguing repeat value now that the Rams have reunited with Aaron Donald, while Bijan Robinson sits at a massive 100/1, representing the first non-QB listed on a board buried under passing talent. With the landscape established, here are three picks (safe, midrange, and long-shot) to capture this season’s NFL MVP hardware. The dual-threat talent remains a perennial favorite, and a new coaching staff in Baltimore has the Ravens trending in a new direction. In addition to Jesse Minter taking over in Baltimore, Declan Doyle arrives with some momentum after a successful tenure as offensive coordinator alongside Ben Johnson in Chicago. Doyle loves a lot of pre-snap movement and play action in his scheme, which is nearly perfect for Jackson. Last season, Jackson led all quarterbacks in play-action passes, with the highest passer rating (147.6), yards per attempt (13.2), and completion percentage over expected (+11.9%), according to NFL NextGen Stats. Derrick Henry remains an outlier against the aging curve, and though the departure of Isaiah Likely creates a voi...