How Republicans suddenly found themselves fighting for survival in twice as many Senate races
Talk about summer blues.The number of Republican-held Senate seats that are toss-ups or lean Democratic has surged from three in May to six as the post-Labor Day midterm homestretch is about to begin, according to a top political analysis.In May, only the GOP-held seats in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio were considered toss-ups or leaning towards Democrats.Now, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska have also turned into toss-ups, per the Cook Political Report.President Trump won each of those states except Maine in 2024 — four of them by double digits.“I worry about that, for sure,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SC) admitted to Keloland News last week, when asked about the odds of Republicans losing their grip on the upper chamber.
“I’m a realist, and … I don’t ever try and sugarcoat things.I think it’s a competitive environment right now.”As The Post previously reported, Republicans are behind in eight of the nine competitive Senate races this cycle, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.
Iowa is the only one where the Republican candidate is up in the polls.Notably, almost all of those races, except Georgia and North Carolina, are within the typical margin of error.Data guru Nate Silver has aggregated similar results from the polls based on his methodology of weighing more credible polls more heavily.“National Republicans have been sounding the alarm that midterms are hard since last year, and we’ve been firm that not a single race should be taken for granted,” a GOP operative involved in Senate races previously told The Post.“Republicans continue to believe we’ll hold the Senate.”Despite the bleak polling, some Republicans have taken solace in the fact that many polls have undercounted their voters in recent cycles.
An analysis by Echelon pollster Patrick Ruffini assessed that 3,312 polls had underestimated Republicans by 3.7 points on average over the past four election cycles.The error rate jumped to 5.9 percentage poi...