Why Europe Really, Really Needs a Mild Winter

As the temperature cools in Europe, the region is heading into winter with an unsettling combination of the highest gas prices in more than three years and the lowest reserves of the fuel in at least 15 years.The precarious state of the energy reserves threatens to unravel the surprising resilience that Europe’s economy has exhibited throughout the war in Iran, which has caused the price of oil, gas and other energy products to surge.A lot will depend — distressingly and unpredictably — on the weather.Europe needs a mild winter, analysts say.The situation is “getting serious,” said Ángel Talavera, the chief economist for Europe at Oxford Economics, a forecasting and advisory firm.

But it is “nowhere near catastrophic.”Across Europe, natural gas is a critical source of fuel, especially in the winter when about a third of homes use it for heating.Europe imports relatively little of its gas directly from the Middle East, but it has become more dependent on imports of liquefied natural gas from the United States.And the volatility in global energy prices has left Europe exposed as it competes with other buyers, including countries in Asia that are big importers of gas.

American suppliers of L.N.G.tend to direct shipments to whoever is willing to pay the highest price....