Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, but within the margin of error, according to a new poll, while Republican Gov.Greg Abbott holds a wider lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the contest for governor, as economic issues and immigration drive voter decision-making.The new NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll shows Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Another 8% of potential voters were still up for grabs in the race — just as tens of millions of dollars in advertising from Republican groups began to flood into the state.Abbott took 48% to Hinojosa’s 41% in the gubernatorial race, a broader edge that’s also technically within the margin of error.The survey effort also zeroed in on Latinos in Texas, shows how that group of voters has swung back to the left since President Donald Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas in 2024, according to NBC News exit polling.Both Talarico and Hinojosa led with Latinos by double digits, with Talarico up 18 points (54%-36%) and Hinojosa up 13 points (52%-39%).But that may still fall short of the benchmark the candidates would need to pull out a victory in a state that hasn’t elected a statewide Democrat in three decades.
At a UnidosUS conference in August, Hinojosa indicated a previous Democratic marker at 64% would be enough to win.“To give you a sense of our importance in this election, in 2018, the closest a Democrat came to flipping Texas in recent history, Beto O’Rourke ran against Ted Cruz and he got 64% of the Latino vote,” Hinojosa said then.
“When I get 64% of the Latino vote in 2026, I win.” Hispanic voters hold enormous electoral power in Texas, making up about a third of the state’s electorate.The survey included 401 Hispanic likely voters in Texas, who were interviewed live by telephone by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
from Sept.8-12.
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