Democrats are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with their largest lead yet in the race for Congress and President Donald Trump’s approval rating at a significant low, according to NBC News’ newly released polling averages.A 9-percentage-point advantage for Democrats when it comes to control of Congress is part of a steady deterioration of the political environment for Republicans.The parties started the road to this November effectively tied in the weeks after President Donald Trump returned to office last year, but independents have gradually begun to prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress.
And those voters have soured on Trump and his economic policies in particular.The congressional average, which stands at 52% to 43% after adjusting to a likely voter scale, measures whether Americans prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats or Republicans before things like individual races and candidates come into play.Individual polls can bounce around, but an average gives a broad sense of where surveys are trending, and it controls for outliers, which is one reason NBC News released our averages now.
At a time when a flurry of polling is released, such as in the homestretch of an election cycle, averages can be valuable tools for tracking what’s happening in the election and diving deeper into how Republicans, Democrats and independents view Trump and the battle for Congress.The NBC News averages are weighted calculations of all publicly available polls that meet certain standards for methodology and transparency tracking back to the beginning of the second Trump administration.How NBC News' poll averages workWhat's the purpose of the polling averages?Our polling averages are designed to measure changes in public opinion over time, rather than reflecting the result of any single survey.
They combine national polls using a statistical weighting method that gives greater influence to the polls that are most informative while reducing the effect o...