Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, Scott Bland breaks down the numbers to know from our newly launched polling averages.Plus, Henry J.
Gomez explains why Appalachia will be key to the outcome of Ohio’s Senate race.— Adam Wollner3 takeaways from NBC News’ polling averagesAnalysis by Scott BlandNBC News launched new polling averages today, rounding up all the available public surveys on two critical measures of the political moment: President Donald Trump’s approval rating and which party voters say they’ll back for Congress this fall.Here’s what the new averages tell us:Democrats are at their strongest point yet this cycle.As Election Day draws nearer, the Democratic edge on the “generic ballot” — poll questions asking which party voters plan to support or want to see in control of Congress — is the widest it’s been (9 points) in Trump’s second term.
The gap has expanded as we switched to calculating our polling average for likely voters instead of registered voters.Keep an eye out for undecided voters.That 9-point advantage for Democrats right now comes from a 52%-43% average.
That leaves about 5% of respondents to all these polls unaccounted for, whether they’re undecided, not sure about voting, picking a third-party candidate or some other factor.There are ample reasons to think those remaining voters — and maybe some soft supporters on either side — could move one way or another in the next few weeks.Maybe the Democratic Party’s remaining unpopularity is too much for some voters to look past.
Perhaps rising prices, the Iran war and other issues spark some 2024 Trump voters to back local Democratic candidates.Whatever ends up happening, that small slice will play a big role in 2026.So don’t forget about the undecided portion of a poll (or a polling aver...