LEE CARTER: Polls say Democrats could swamp Republicans. As a pollster, I have a question

The blue wave is coming.Maybe even a blue tsunami.At this rate, Democrats may want to stop ordering yard signs and start ordering life jackets.REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.And look, I get it.President Donald Trump speaks on inflation at Mount Airy Casino Resort in Mount Pocono, Penn., on Tuesday, Dec.9, 2025.
(Adam Gray/Bloomberg/Getty Images)The polls are very good for Democrats right now.The latest Fox News Power Rankings has Democrats ahead by 11 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.
Reuters/Ipsos has them ahead by among registered voters.LEE CARTER: I STUDY POLLING.DEMOCRATS ARE GAMBLING ON ANTI-TRUMP VOTES, NOT IDEASPresident Donald Trump’s approval rating is struggling.
Voters are miserable about prices.Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage.If you’re a Democrat, there is a lot to like.If you’re a Republican, maybe skip ahead a few paragraphs.But I’m a pollster.
And when everyone starts looking at the same numbers and reaching the same conclusion, I get a little itchy.Not because I don’t believe the polls.I do.The question is whether we’re asking them to tell us more than they actually can.The polls are telling us pretty clearly that a lot of Americans are unhappy with Trump.FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: VOTERS SAY THEY’RE IN ECONOMIC PAIN, BUT WILL DEMOCRATS GAIN?What I don’t think they’ve answered yet is whether those same Americans believe in the alternative.But I’m a pollster.And when everyone starts looking at the same numbers and reaching the same conclusion, I get a little itchy.And there is a very big difference.100 DAYS UNTIL MIDTERMS AND DEMOCRATS ARE WINNING BECAUSE THEY ACTUALLY HAVE A MESSAGEIn 2018, Democrats had something wonderfully simple – Healthcare.
Not a framework.Not a 14-point plan.
Not a word tested in a focus group until everyone in the room agreed it was "accessible." A cause.Republicans had tried to repeal Obamacare.Voters worried...