Democrats mail ballot shift: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, we dive into a shift in the way Democrats are casting their ballots so far ahead of the November election.Plus, Kristen Welker examines the key dynamics that were at play in last night’s Senate debates.— Adam WollnerMail ballot concerns are changing how Democrats vote, early vote analysis showsBy Michael Morse and Marc MeredithDemocrats are changing how they vote, requesting fewer mail ballots than in past elections but returning the ones they do request more quickly, according to a new NBC News Decision Desk analysis of the early vote conducted in coordination with the University of Pennsylvania.The findings, which come less than four weeks before Election Day, reflect a midterm landscape shaped by concerns about mail-in voting and doubts about the reliability of the U.S.

Postal Service.The shift among Democrats suggests they may be abandoning mail ballots in favor of in-person voting, or taking precautions to ensure their ballot arrives on time.The implications could be significant.

Since 2020, Democrats have been far more likely than Republicans to vote by mail, creating predictable patterns in how early election tallies shift as additional votes are counted.But if those habits are changing, it will be more difficult to gauge which party has more enthusiasm from early voting figures, while the now-familiar red and blue “mirages” seen on recent election nights could unfold differently.Take North Carolina, where the Senate race is poised to help decide control of the chamber.

So far, Democrats in the state are both less likely to request and more likely to return mail ballots compared with 2022, the most recent midterm election year.The decrease is larger among Democratic registered voters, at 40% fewer mail ballots requested, than among Republic...