NFL Week 5 predictions, best bets: Picks against the spread for every game

It’s a little difficult to know where the Giants are right now based on traditional handicapping methods.Those would include using your eyes, intuition, and understanding of the ebbs and flows of an NFL season based on, in my case, 33 years of observing.The standings say the Giants are in first place in the NFC East at 3-1.

Big Blue got to that perch, however, by surviving against the 0-4 Titans and 1-3 Cardinals at MetLife because of interceptions on the final defensive snap.That would typically be a red flag in handicapping future games or at least raise these questions: Are they winning because John Harbaugh is teaching them how, even without Jaxson Dart on offense and Brian Burns on defense? Or will they be exposed when they play better opposition, the way they were in Week 2 at the Rams? The answers are probably some of both, because this is the NFL.But let’s look specifically at the road game Sunday against the 1-3 Commanders.Would they count as better opposition? Based on record, no.

But they are getting back Jayden Daniels from his elbow injury.Washington’s offense functioned well for backup Marcus Mariota in an upset home win vs.the defending champion Seahawks, and even had a few decent moments with third-stringer Athan Kaliakmanis in last week’s 30-13 loss to the Colts in London.

The Rutgers product burnt Sauce Gardner for a touchdown bomb and the Commanders had another long score taken down on a phantom holding penalty.Looking at the modern DVOA metrics, both teams place 20th or worse in every category except for Washington ranking seventh in rush defense.Each has the edge in three categories.

So that’s of little assistance unless you see it as a reason to take points.The Commanders have the better quarterback, if healthy.The Giants have the better head coach.

Washington had to travel back across the pond.The metrics say it’s pretty even.All things considered, this lands as an underdog selection for me, with the suspicion that the spread...