With less than a month until the midterms, everyone has suddenly become an expert on Texas and Michigan.I understand why.Texas has Texas state Rep.James Talarico, the charismatic Democrat trying to do something Democrats have dreamed about for decades: turn Texas blue.
He is running against former attorney general Ken Paxton, a Republican carrying enough political baggage to fill the overhead bins on a 747.FOX NEWS POLL: IT’S A LONE STAR SENATE SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TALARICO AND PAXTONMichigan has Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.Whatever you think of his progressive politics, he is a rare political talent: charismatic, compelling, and very good at attracting attention.
His race against former Republican Rep.Mike Rogers has become one of the most closely watched contests in America.Iowa Republican U.S.
Senate candidate, Rep.Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, plays the violin during her BBQ fundraiser at the Horizon Events Center on Aug.
29, 2026, in Clive, Iowa.(Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images)Watch them both.FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERSBut if you want to understand what is actually happening in this election, I'd look somewhere else.I'd look at Iowa.FOX NEWS POLL: TUREK, HINSON IN CLOSE IOWA SENATE RACEBecause Iowa doesn't come with quite the same political celebrity.
It doesn't have the irresistible "Texas turns blue!" storyline.It doesn't have Michigan's unusual mix of personalities and politics.It just has an extraordinarily close Senate race.
And that may make it a much better test of the country.DEMOCRATS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE IN THE SENATE, BUT SHOULDN'T CELEBRATE YETDemocratic state Rep.Josh Turek and Republican Rep.
Ashley Hinson are separated by essentially nothing.The RealClearPolitics polling average has Turek at 45.9% and Hinson at 45.2%.Less than one point.12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACKFox found Turek ahead by two.
The New York Times/Siena found Hinson ahead by one.Suffolk Uni...