AMB GORDON SONDLAND: Threading the needle on Ukraine, Russia and China
Let’s get the preliminaries out of the way.Ukraine has corruption problems and political dysfunction of its own.
But, in this war, Ukraine is unequivocally the good guy.Russia’s invasion was unprovoked, unjustified and indefensible.
Vladimir Putin is the aggressor.Volodymyr Zelensky is defending his country.
Period.Now let’s talk about geopolitical reality.Donald Trump is attempting something far more ambitious than ending the war in Ukraine.
He is trying to rearrange the strategic chessboard for the next several decades.Understanding that objective is essential to understanding his seemingly contradictory decisions.The United States has one truly consequential long-term strategic competitor: China.
Russia is dangerous, nuclear-armed and capable of wreaking havoc on its neighbors.But, Russia is also a declining power with an economy dependent on natural resources, deteriorating demographics and ambitions that, while unacceptable, are largely regional.
China is something else entirely.Beijing seeks to challenge American economic, technological and military leadership globally.
It has the industrial capacity, financial resources and strategic patience to pursue that ambition for generations.China’s challenge is in a different category altogether.CHINA’S LONG-TERM FINANCES ARE ALL WET AS BILL TO MAINTAIN HUGE NAVY COMES DUE IN 2031Here is Trump’s dilemma: Europe is not yet strong enough to contain Russia without substantial American support.
Despite years of promises, too many NATO allies remain dependent on American military capabilities, intelligence, logistics and leadership.Until Europe can handle Russia largely on its own, the United States must continue devoting enormous resources to European security.
Every additional weapons system, dollar and hour of strategic attention consumed by Moscow is a resource unavailable for deterring Beijing or addressing other threats around the world.Trump is trying to change that equation.His apparent object...