Why election surveys come with an extra layer of uncertainty.Witnesses recall the horrific scene as a truck plowed through a youth soccer game in Kansas.
And inside the silent growth of Flock cameras.Here’s what to know today.Who will actually show up to vote? The question complicating election pollsWith Democrats favored to win the House and state-level polls showing the Senate within the party’s reach, turnout remains the biggest unknown that will decide what kind of election we have.Republicans are hoping the polls this year are underestimating their support, which has happened in the past.
But no one can know for sure who will turn out until after votes are counted — polls aren’t predictions, only snapshots in time.This is Morning Rundown, a weekday newsletter to start your day.Sign up here to get it in your inbox.02:34Kornacki analyzes new Decision Desk poll on midterm enthusiasm00:0000:00National surveys can vary based on how pollsters identify a population that doesn’t yet exist: the “likely voter.” Depending on how we choose to identify likely voters, Democrats have anywhere between a 14- and 4-point advantage over Republicans when it comes to control of Congress.Each firm has its own method, but all likely voter polls rely on two factors: letting the voters tell us what they’ll do, or predicting whether someone will vote based on who they are.
Marc Trussler, a senior elections analyst on the NBC News Decision Desk, breaks down how this works using our latest poll as an example.The fight for Congress is playing out largely on Republican-held turf.
But headwinds for President Donald Trump’s party have made Democrats optimistic.See the latest data and which states are in play here.
Plus, 71% of U.S.adults think the country is on the “wrong track,” the highest share yet in Trump’s second term.
Witnesses haunted by moment pickup plowed through a Kansas youth soccer game2 killed, 10 injured after woman drives truck through youth socc...