Iran is approaching a financial reckoning as a U.S.naval blockade threatens to wipe out its seaborne crude oil revenues by mid-December — but the economic pain may fall more heavily on ordinary Iranians than on the military Washington is trying to constrain.Iran’s trackable floating oil inventory outside the U.S.
blockade zone has fallen to zero, according to energy intelligence firm Kpler, which projects that Tehran's crude revenues could dry up by the middle of December as outstanding payments are settled.But the loss of oil revenue would not necessarily translate into an immediate military funding crisis.Tehran could shield military spending while cutting civilian programs, allowing inflation to erode purchasing power and drawing on alternative revenue sources.BESSENT SAYS IRAN WILL HAVE 'NOTHING LEFT TO TRADE' WITHIN TWO WEEKS AS OIL LIFELINE DRIES UPExport oil pipelines are seen at an oil facility on Kharg Island, on the shore of the Gulf, Feb.
23, 2016.(Str/AFP Via Getty Images)That complicates Washington's pressure campaign: The blockade may deprive Tehran of one of its biggest sources of cash without immediately starving the military and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of the money they need to operate.Oil directly accounts for roughly 30% of Iran's government budget, according to Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and energy analyst at Eurasia Group, and Miad Maleki, an Iran sanctions and financial expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.Iran entered the year expecting to export about 1.7 million barrels per day at roughly $54 per barrel, Brew said.
Actual exports have fallen short of that target, though higher oil prices allowed Tehran to build some financial cushion.Maleki estimated that oil and refined petroleum products account for between 50% and 60% of regime revenue when indirect income is included.Still, the December deadline is not a date on which Iran suddenly runs out of money.Daily life continues in Tehran, capital of Iran, amid on...