NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction, odds: David Bailey remains value choice with historical edge on Arvell Reese

The criteria for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year is usually pretty cut and dry. On the obvious front, voters lean toward high draft pedigree, while sacks, forced fumbles, and high solo tackle counts make the most noise on ballots.Arvell Reese, drafted fifth overall by the Giants, leads the oddsboard as the even-money favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to earn the hardware heading into Week 10.The 6-foot-4 rangy off-ball linebacker from Ohio State’s price surged after a sensational performance against the Eagles on Sunday, recording 12 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble in Big Blue’s ugly 19-11 win over Philadelphia. Reese is second in the NFL in solo tackles and leads the Giants roster in total tackles by a margin of 18. He opened with the third-longest odds to win at +850, so his journey to this point is worth applauding.

And although the Giants have leaped into first place of the NFC East, winning doesn’t carry all that much weight. A notable trend in the award’s recent history is voters’ preference for pass rushers. Reese’s New York counterpart, Jets edge rusher David Bailey, doesn’t trail far behind him at a price of +250.The No.

2 overall pick from Texas Tech opened as the +500 DROY favorite, and has recorded 7.5 sacks through eight games, leading both the Jets and all rookies while tied for fourth-most in the league. Six of the last 10 winners have racked up at least seven sacks, which are the clearest and easiest-to-quantify “splash” plays on defense. That’s perhaps why only three cornerbacks have won this century, and while the award was once dominated by tackle-heavy linebackers like Reese, it has shifted toward pass rushers.Shaq Leonard is the lone off-ball linebacker to win in the past decade, while a safety hasn’t claimed the honor since 1990.There’s no doubt the Jets are adding another embarrassing installment to their franchise history this year, and Sunday’s 35-12 loss to the Chiefs underscored more lack of di...