Aces vs. Mystics prediction: WNBA picks, odds, best bets

The betting market for any sport is always softest at the beginning of the season, especially if the league involves a great deal of player movement.That’s because oddsmakers are more willing to adjust their power ratings since that year’s unknowns are starting to take shape.The WNBA is a prime example of this fluidity, and the Washington Mystics have been one of the biggest surprises with a 2-1 record.

For context, their win total was just 15.5 in a 44-game schedule.Washington deserves credit for this early success and could easily be 3-0, but I also think the Mystics have benefited from weak opponents.WNBA oddsmakers seem to agree.

Washington is a 13-point underdog Friday in the home opener for the 1-1 Las Vegas Aces.Las Vegas bounced back from its opening loss to the defending champion New York Liberty with a convincing 87-62 win over the lowly Connecticut Sun on Tuesday.I expect a similar performance against the Mystics, who I believe remain a fringe playoff team at best.The Aces still have reigning MVP A’Ja Wilson and she is surrounded by All-Star caliber players in Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd.

If they remotely show up, this should be a blowout.In my eyes, the best angle is playing the Aces in the first half.That’s because I believe we will get a truer outcome of this mismatch because when the Aces have a large lead, coach Becky Hammon typically rests her starters in the fourth quarter, leaving the backdoor cover open with a double-digit point spread.That’s particularly applicable here because Las Vegas lacks depth and has a quick turnaround with a road game on Sunday in Seattle.I am 44-36-1 ATS in this Post sports section, pending Thursday night’s play.

My next play is the Aces -7.5 in the first half (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook)Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst.Doug has over two decade...