Iran's latest attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sharply higher in recent days — a reminder that Tehran can still rattle global energy markets.But the latest spike also highlights a bigger question facing the Trump administration: Has Iran begun losing its ability to use the strategic waterway as economic leverage over Washington?Growing oil production, alternative export routes and new shipping patterns suggest Iran's ability to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz may be steadily weakening — even if it can still trigger short-term price shocks.Iran's latest attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sharply higher this week, a reminder that Tehran can still rattle global energy markets.(Shady Alassar/Anadolu via Getty Images)VANCE REJECTS CLAIMS TRUMP-IRAN DEAL ECHOES OBAMA-ERA LOGIC AS HAWKS RAISE ALARMVice President JD Vance in late June linked global oil supplies directly to negotiations with Iran. "I think what the president has told us to do is use this MoU (memorandum of understanding) to sort of refill the world's oil economy, to refill some stocks, and then to see where the hand is," Vance said during an interview with "The Michael Knowles Show" podcast June 30.That outlook faced its first major test in recent days after Iran renewed attacks on commercial shipping.
President Donald Trump declared the U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding and ceasefire "over" and warned his administration could again impose a naval blockade on Iran if attacks on commercial shipping continue.US CLAWS BACK KEY CONCESSION TO IRAN AFTER FRESH ATTACKS ON COMMERCIAL SHIPS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZThe U.S.Energy Information Administration in recent days forecast worldwide crude production and trade flows will rebound to near pre-conflict levels by the end of the year, with most previously shut-in production returning during the first quarter of 2027.
The agency expects increased global production to lower crude oil and g...